volatility-modeling

Implied vs Realized Volatility: Reading the Gap By Shakti Tiwari · Educational only · Not investment advice This article explains implied vs realized volatility: reading the gap from first principles. No live market numbers are quoted; the structure is what lasts. Why this matters Implied vs Realized Volatility: Reading the Gap is one of those subjects that sounds simple until you implement it, a…

Volatility Surface Basics: Term Structure Explained By Shakti Tiwari · Educational only · Not investment advice This article explains volatility surface basics: term structure explained from first principles. No live market numbers are quoted; the structure is what lasts. Why this matters Volatility Surface Basics: Term Structure Explained is one of those subjects that sounds simple until you imp…

A comprehensive quantitative analysis of Alibaba's severe multi-sigma equity drawdown as of June 2026. Explores statistical return modeling, geopolitical risk premiums, market microstructure dynamics, fundamental factor deterioration, and the mathematical frameworks underlying the catastrophic repricing event. 📊 Deep Research Topics: quantitative finance, investment analysis, financial educatio…

I am working on vol surface modeling for cryptocurrencies and generally find that SABR calibrates to the vol surface on ETH better. I know that eSSVI ensures arbitrage free surfaces and therefore that we sacrifice a bit of goodness of fit for it, while SABR isn't guaranteed to be arbitrage free when interpolated, but even by adding safeguards and penalties to SABR to push the general surface towa…

I always find myself in the unknown charted territory when it comes to non-Linear Instruments. I come across the scenario, How to value the option using Delta Vol surface? Example I have CME traded Soybean option(900 strikes, Underlying traded future (spot) trading at 880 USD-cents/BU) with dec maturity and delta surface from the Bloomberg. a) I need to plug out implied volatility from the del…

Around 2014 , I proposed a few Bachelier implied volatility “solvers”. The first one was inspired by Steven G. Johnson’s Faddeeva package for the complex error function: it used a piecewise Chebyshev polynomial representation to have a near machine accurate representation of the Bachelier implied volatility. Why did I put “solver” in quotes? Because the problem can be reduced to a 1D function rep…

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