HubbardOBrienEconomics.com Blog

Image created by ChatGPT of the Department of Commerce building in Washington, DC The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released two reports this morning: “GDP (Advance Estimate), 1st Quarter 2026” and “Personal Income and Outlays, March 2026.” The BEA estimates that real GDP grew at annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of … Continue reading "Two Releases from the BEA this Morning Show…

Screenshot of Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his FOMC press conference on April 29 Today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had the expected result with the committee deciding to leave unchanged its target for the federal funds rate at its current range of 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent. The … Continue reading "FOMC Holds Its Target for the Federal Fund…

Image created by ChatGPT This opinion column was first published on Project Syndicate. Adam Smith on the U.S. Midterms The Wealth of Nations offers a useful lens for understanding why US President Donald Trump’s mercantilist agenda has fallen short of its own stated goals. It also points to a better path, combining competitive markets with … Continue reading "Glenn on Adam Smith and the Midterm E…

The Marriner S. Eccles building, headquarters of the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC. Image from federalreserve.gov. The following opinion column appeared in the Financial Times. What Warsh Should Do at the Fed Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve comes at a pivotal time for the American economy and for … Continue reading "Glenn’s Advice for Kevin Warsh"

What happens when the Fed chair’s seat is about to change hands—and inflation still won’t behave? In this episode of the Hubbard & O’Brien Economics Podcast, Tony O’Brien and Glenn Hubbard break down the looming transition from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh, what the latest inflation and energy-price pressures mean for interest rates, and why … Continue reading "NEW! 4-11-26 Podcast – Glenn Hubbar…

Image generated by ChatGPT This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its report on the consumer price index (CPI) for March. Yesterday,  the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released monthly data on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for February as part of its “Personal Income and Outlays” report.  Both reports showed … Continue reading "A Double Dose of B…

Image created by ChatGPT It’s not surprising that employment in health care has been increasing. The National Health Expenditure (NHE) Projections Model of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services estimates that the long-run income elasticity of demand for private personal health care spending is 1.58. So, a 10 percent increase in U.S. disposable personal … Continue reading "Healthcare Jobs D…

Image created by ChatGPT This morning (February 11), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its “Employment Situation” report (often called the “jobs report”) for January. The report was originally scheduled to be released last Friday but was postponed by the brief federal government shutdown. The data in the report show that the labor market was much … Continue reading "Surprisingly Stron…

Image created by ChatGPT Today (February 5), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its “Job Openings and Labor Turnover” (JOLTS) report for December 2025. The report indicated that labor market conditions may be weakening. The following figure shows that the rate of job openings fell to 3.9 percent in December from 4.2 percent in … Continue reading "December JOLTS Report Shows Possible La…