macroeconomics

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news Oil prices tumble amid hopes strait of Hormuz will soon reopen The US-Iran agreement is well-timed for the Bank of England, which is due to set UK interest rates on Thursday. If the strait of Hormuz does reopen, and oil flows return towards pre-war levels, there will be less inflationary pressure – and thus less need for interest rate ris…

Forecasters were wrong about an immediate recession but right that we would be worse off outside the EU As the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote approaches, the verdict on Britain’s economic performance is clear: voting to leave has resulted in severe costs for households and businesses. The immediate recession predicted in the Treasury forecasts ordered by George Osborne – dubbed “ project fea…

Anuj Yadav, Xavier's Law School, St. Xavier's University Kolkata Harsh Vardhan Singh, Himachal Pradesh National Law University ABSTRACT The Goods and Services Tax (GST) was implemented in India on July 1, 2017, marking a significant tax reform designed to unify the indirect taxation framework, eradicate cascading taxes, and sister a smooth national market. In recent years, the government has adju…

Consumer sentiment still remains at historically low levels amid Iran war and rising inflation, new survey shows Easing gas prices are making Americans feel better about their personal finances and the economy in June, but consumer sentiment remains at historically low levels amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East, according to new survey data from the University of Michigan. The latest numbers…

GDP hit by higher energy prices caused by Middle East conflict, after 3% rise in March The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in April as the Iran war began to take its toll on growth, official figures show. As energy prices have risen as a result of the conflict, after Iran closed off the strait of Hormuz – a vital shipping route for global trade – the UK’s strong expansion in the first quarter slid …

Forecast for this year downgraded to 2.5% and inflation expected to jump as a result of war in the Middle East Global economic growth will slow to 2.5% this year as a result of the war in the Middle East – the weakest since the Covid pandemic – as inflation and borrowing costs rise, the World Bank has warned. The Washington-based development bank has downgraded growth forecasts for two-thirds of …

European Central Bank increases main deposit rate to 2.25%, with two further rises expected by next spring Business live – latest updates The European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time since 2023 in response to higher inflation caused by the war in Iran. The ECB raised its main deposit rate from 2% to 2.25% and financial markets are pricing in two more rises by next spring…

Ahead of the ten year anniversary of the EU referendum on 23 June, UK in a Changing Europe experts have written a short series of blogs reflecting on some of the issues at the heart of Brexit then and now. Here, Jonathan Portes looks at the economic impact of Brexit. Brexit was always an economic trade-off. It was a decision to move away from deep integration with the EU in exchange for greater d…

UK lagging behind rivals on tourism growth because of travel costs and lack of joined-up planning, says CEO Sean Doyle The cost of travel to and around the UK is keeping millions of tourists away and slowing economic growth, the boss of British Airways said, as he urged a rethink of aviation taxes. The airline’s chief executive, Sean Doyle, said the UK had some of the highest aviation taxes in th…

This study examines the relationship between key macroeconomic factors and economic growth, with a focus on inflation, investment, and consumption dynamics. It adopts an analytical framework to explore three core dimensions: the growth–stability trade-off reflected through inflation, the role of external versus domestic investment captured by foreign direct investment (FDI) and gross capital form…

The country has seen a new driver of exports, and it has not been affected by the Middle East conflict to the extent of many others. This article assesses China’s current economic performance and the equity market outlook for the remainder of 2026. The post China’s economy in a time of uncertainties appeared first on RBC Wealth Management - Asia .

The country has seen a new driver of exports, and it has not been affected by the Middle East conflict to the extent of many others. This article assesses China’s current economic performance and the equity market outlook for the remainder of 2026. The post China’s economy in a time of uncertainties appeared first on RBC Wealth Management .

Purpose: An oil economy is usually driven by an economy, and economic performance is explained by following the stock market performance. Although some studies have aimed at the oil prices-stock market nexus and how various developments affect the nexus, a gap still exists in studies carried out in GCC countries. This work seeks to harness how the two significant world shocks, including the COVID…

This study examines the impact of inflation volatility on GDP growth across selected developed (Japan, USA) and developing (India, Nigeria) economies over the period 2010–2024. Using annual macroeconomic data from the World Bank, inflation volatility is measured as the 3-year and 5-year rolling standard deviations of consumer price inflation, while annual inflation rates are included to control f…

Unexpected monthly drop of 0.1% in May leaves price of typical home at £298,806, says lender Halifax Business live – latest updates UK house prices fell unexpectedly in May as rising mortgage rates fuelled by the war in Iran affected affordability and homebuyer demand. The average price of a typical UK home fell by 0.1% in May to £298,806 compared with April, the third consecutive monthly drop re…

Prolonged disruption of energy supplies from the Middle East that lasts into next year would deal a severe blow to the global economy

According to chief economic adviser Kevin Hassett, living in the world’s richest superpower and witnessing food, electricity and housing become luxury items is a good thing God, I love paying high prices at the supermarket, don’t you? I walk outside with a bag of basics that cost approximately 500% more than they did a few years ago and it makes me feel so optimistic about life. What a wonderful …