macroeconomics

Nature Communications, Published online: 05 May 2026; doi:10.1038/s41467-026-72694-0 Using a health-augmented macroeconomic model, this study finds that diabetes could reduce output by INT$5.2 trillion across 190 countries (2021–2050), with substantial cross-country heterogeneity in GDP losses.

An exodus of workers will be damaging – and electoral change might help Britain escape instability and low growth While all eyes are on the Middle East and the risk of a global recession, a possible scenario with significant downside risk for the UK economy after the next general election is building: the impact of anti-immigration policies. We do not know enough about the actual policy changes a…

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has drawn attention mainly because of rising oil and petrol prices. But focusing only on fuel misses a much bigger story. Energy is part of almost everything we use, so when its cost goes up, the effects spread slowly through the economy and show up in unexpected places. […] The post Why Strait of Hormuz crisis could quietly raise prices around the world appear…

A key inflation measure rose in March as gas prices soared, the latest sign that the Iran war is raising the cost of living and delaying any interest rate cuts.

War has combined with battered economy to leave Tehran wondering how hardline it can afford to be Iran may not be choking like a stuffed pig as Donald Trump predicted, but its economy is in serious difficulty as a combination of a massive war-damages bill, inflation, currency devaluation, unemployment and a contraction in oil revenues combine to leave the political elite worrying how hardline the…

Trump is most vulnerable on cost of living and other economic issues; US to ‘guide’ trapped ships from Gulf, president says – key US politics stories from Sunday 3 May Donald Trump’s approval rating has hit its worst level during his two terms in office, with more than six in 10 Americans disapproving of the president’s job performance. Trump’s rating is at its worst on the cost of living and oth…

The U.S. dollar has dropped about 10% against other major currencies since Trump returned to office. Multinational corporations welcome the decline, but it is adding to pressure on American consumers.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects nationwide retail gasoline prices to average near US$4.30 a gallon for April 2026 – the highest monthly average of the year. The political response has been familiar. Georgia has suspended its state gas tax, other states are weighing their own tax holidays, and the White House has issued a […] The post What’s in the price of a gallon of gas appea…

The so-called "billionaires tax" appears to be headed for the California ballot. Not all billionaires think it's reason to flee the state.

Most Canadians expect housing prices to rise, though uncertainty and regional differences are shaping a more balanced outlook. The post Canadian Housing Price Expectations: What Canadians Predict for the Next 12 Months appeared first on The Logit Group .

From energy markets to everyday prices, the fallout from the Iran war is reshaping the global economy.

Both Powell’s major achievements and his shortcomings can serve as lessons for future Federal Reserve chairs. The post Jerome Powell’s legacy of achievements, turbulence, and independence under fire appeared first on Atlantic Council .

The war in Iran continues with no clear end in sight, fueling economic turbulence and concerns of a global energy crisis. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol spoke at an AC Front Page event on April 13th, and argued the conflict is the greatest energy security threat in history. He warned that oil prices will soon “converge” with the on-the-ground reality, knocking the glob…

Energy disruption abroad drives prices at home, showing how few safeguards are built in – which is why a call for resilience must be heeded When the Bank of England warned this week that food inflation could reach 7% by the end of the year, it revealed how little stands between a geopolitical jolt and a domestic crisis in Britain. A shock wave in the Gulf feeds through energy, fertiliser and supe…

Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as average house price rose 0.4% in April and NatWest sets aside £140m NatWest is now the biggest faller on the FTSE 100, down 3.7% after analysts suggested that its underlying profits were slightly weaker than expected. Gary Greenwood , banks analyst at Shore Capital , said that profits before tax benefited from “stronger-than-e…

Experts warn higher energy costs will gradually move through supply chains. The most significant economic impacts may not appear for months.

The AI growth engine was on full display in the first quarter, powering the U.S. economy through fresh headwinds from a war-driven surge in inflation.

Image created by ChatGPT of the Department of Commerce building in Washington, DC The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released two reports this morning: “GDP (Advance Estimate), 1st Quarter 2026” and “Personal Income and Outlays, March 2026.” The BEA estimates that real GDP grew at annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of … Continue reading "Two Releases from the BEA this Morning Show…

First quarter output, driven by AI investment and government spending, rose as oil shock fuels inflation fears US gross domestic product (GDP) accelerated 2% in the first three months of 2026, though consumer spending is slowing as the war with Iran continues to impact energy prices. The last GDP reading for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed that US economic growth slowed to a 0.5% pace, largely …