macroeconomics

Global prices are approaching a tipping point that could trigger inflation, shortages and, over time, recession If a US-Iran deal is about to be reached, three months on from the launch of Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, it will not be a day too soon for oil markets, which are approaching a dangerous tipping point. The cost of a barrel of crude on the spot market – for immediate purchase, eff…

Prewar US gas prices averaged about $3 a gallon nationally – kiss that number goodbye for 2026 Sorry, US drivers, but don’t expect pump prices to return to prewar levels any time soon, even if the US and Iran agree to a lasting peace deal tomorrow. As the war with Iran enters its third month, drivers have become infuriated by rising gas prices – and inflation – and Donald Trump is facing a histor…

Abstract This paper discusses how the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) affect logistics infrastructure and supply chain performance in China and some of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and specifically how the quality of governance moderate these effects. The analysis utilizes a balanced panel dataset between 1996 and 2023 that employs a fixed effect panel regression model, which comp…

This study aims to analyze the effect of the Coretax System and tax awareness on MSME taxpayer compliance in Pekanbaru, with tax sanctions as a moderating variable. This research uses a quantitative approach with a survey method. The sample consists of 200 MSME respondents registered at KPP Pratama Pekanbaru Senapelan who have implemented the Coretax System. Data analysis was conducted using mult…

Heterodox economics differs from orthodox or mainstream economics. It draws on a multiplicity of ideas, disciplines, methods and voices to present a more radical alternative to the dominant paradigm of neoclassical economics, which is viewed as overly narrow and blind-sided to how economies actually work. Andrew Trigg traces the heterodox tradition from its origins in the anti-capitalism ideas of…

Abstract Technology, finance, and energy are the key drivers to sustained growth and enhanced living standards in economies. This research adopts a framework that is built around the innovation-driven growth, finance-led growth, and energy-leg growth hypotheses to capture the various financial and technological mechanisms, and energy resources that drives economic growth. Therefore, the analysis …

Abstract This study examines the factors influencing gold prices within a comprehensive framework encompassing macroeconomic, financial, real, and geopolitical factors. By utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM), the analysis captures both short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships. Robustness of the findings is…

The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate climbed this week to its highest level in nearly nine months, driving up borrowing costs for homebuyers during what’s traditionally the housing market’s busiest time of the year.

Consumer giveaways may soften the blow from the the war on Iran. But Britain’s vulnerability demands deeper state intervention and a faster transition Rachel Reeves’s announcement of a series of cost of living measures this week shows a government trying to prove it still has agency and relevance. The VAT cuts on summer attractions such as theme parks and soft-play centres, free bus rides for the…

This paper aims to systematically reconstruct the fundamental paradigm of macroeconomic analysis to address the profound crisis in the explanatory power of the traditional "troika" (consumption, investment, net exports) framework, particularly concerning its teleology, agent ontology, and relevance in the age of financialization. We propose a new framework integrating static structural and dynami…

Bosch Limited has highlighted growing global uncertainties and operational risks while outlining a cautious outlook for FY27. The development reflects broader concerns among industrial and manufacturing companies regarding geopolitical tensions, supply chain volatility, economic uncertainty, and evolving technology transitions affecting Read More ... The post Bosch India highlights global risks a…

The £24.3bn figure comes amid rising cost of pensions as bond market jitters take monthly debt interest to £10.3bn Business live – latest updates The UK borrowed more than expected in April as high inflation drove up the cost of pensions and benefits, with concern over the Iran war and political uncertainty adding to debt costs. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said public sector net borr…

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news The British Retail Consortium has reacted to official retail figures this morning, which showed a drop last month. Harvir Dhillon , economist at the industry body, said: We are starting to see signs that concerns over the Middle East conflict and its impact on living costs are leading shoppers to rein in their spending in many areas. …Dis…