2024 YR4 surpasses Apophis as ‘riskiest’ asteroid ever detected
Josh
On 18 February 2025, the probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 might impact Earth on 22 December 2032, as assessed by ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre, rose to 2.8%.
This means that 2024 YR4 has now surpassed the 2.7% chance of impact briefly associated with the much larger asteroid (99942) Apophis back in 2004.
For asteroids larger than 30 metres in size, 2024 YR4 now holds the record for the highest impact probability reached, and the longest time spent with an impact probability...