Asteroid 2024 YR4 – latest updates

These are the latest estimates for the size and impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 from ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (NEOCC), as of 25 February 2025. See our Frequently Asked Questions for more information. Find out why an asteroid’s impact probability can change over time, and why it often falls to zero: Here is the equivalent representation for 2024 YR4, based on real observational data: Updates 25 Feb: The latest analysis from ESA has reduced the probability that asteroid.