TQQQ is easy to sell with one screenshot. Start with $10,000. End with millions. Make regular index investing look slow. Then leave out the years where the account gets cut by more than 80%. Leave out the trade list. Leave out the moment a real trader starts reducing size, overriding signals, or deciding the backtest was never realistic. My test is smaller and more practical:
- define the rule,
- trade only after the signal is known,
- include costs,
- compare against buy and hold, and ask whether the drawdown is still something a human can follow. A leveraged ETF multiplies the daily move of an index. UPRO targets 3x the daily S&P 500 move. TQQQ targets 3x the daily Nasdaq-100 move. The daily reset is the catch. Smooth trends help, choppy markets and bear markets punish the path. I tested one practical question in RealTest: can a moving average reduce leveraged ETF risk enough to make the trade-off worthwhile? From 10,000 to over 2 million. The return chart is why traders care.