decision-making

Vehicles, the carriers of representational content, are an important, if somewhat undertheorized, posit in cognitive science. In this paper we argue that generating and maintaining representational vehicles is not a trivial problem, even more clearly so when we are dealing with cognition in complex systems such as brains, or brain-body-environment aggregates. We discuss various vehicle-building o…

Alex’s team finally got approval for their first A/B test. After months of pitching the value of experimentation, leadership was on board.  Now came the hard part: choosing what to test first. Everyone agreed that it should be something big. Something transformative. Something that would prove experimentation’s value once and for all. Three months later,...

PredictiveMind has launched a new “behavioral risk” category aimed at addressing a critical limitation in artificial intelligence—its tendency toward self-deception and flawed predictions in complex decision-making environments. According to the report, the concept of behavioral risk focuses on how AI Read More ... The post PredictiveMind Introduces ‘Behavioral Risk’ Category to Address AI Decisi…

Last Tuesday my friends spent 14 minutes deciding where to go train. Fourteen minutes. Four of us, three opinions about that rooftop downtown, one person who wanted the park with the low walls, and nobody willing to commit because nobody wanted to be the one who picked wrong. I opened a browser tab, typed six parkour spots into a spin the wheel tool , and hit spin. The wheel landed on the bridge …

Buttons, Blenders, and Coordination Framing effects make a big difference Every now and then, a Red vs Blue Button poll goes viral on Twitter: Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which …

Published on April 24, 2026 7:39 PM GMT The forecasting community is failing because it is not focused on how the world actually works. This post has been written in response to the Manifund Essay Prize which asks “How can we leverage forecasting into better decisions?” Who am I to make such an outlandish claims? I worked at HM Treasury as senior policy advisor across multiple policy areas, inclu…

We studied how people break unhealthy snacking habits using daily diaries and smartphone app. Here's how we navigated the challenge of capturing habit change and analysing data where no two people change alike.

Athletes say they hate to lose more than they love to win. New research finds the same sentiment is shared in organizations. A Virginia Tech researcher and his colleagues discovered that when managers frame work problems as a potential loss, employees are more likely to take action than when those problems are framed as potential gains.

We all have times when we're uncertain, indecisive. Here are six foundational concepts to guide you towards making the best decisions and running your life.

A new generation of artificial intelligence (AI) tools could help save more patients who need heart transplants by making better use of donor hearts that are currently discarded, according to research presented today by Brian Wayda, MD, at International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation (ISHLT) 46th Annual Meeting and Scientific Sessions.

A brief reflection exercise dramatically increases the number and quality of ideas people generate.

Introduction Human Resilience and the Risk of Outsourcing Augmentation vs Replacement Strategic Risk, Intuition and Business Advantage Takeaways and Q&A

This article presents a pragmatic framework for time-sensitive analysis of behavioral RCTs using sequence methods and Markov modeling. The focus is not methodological novelty but translation: we map common policy questions to appropriate temporal tools, provide a reporting checklist for transparency, and show how estimates become implementable rules for booster timing, triage, and exit. We positi…

This paper tests the robustness of promise keeping in economic interactions using a laboratory experiment. Our design allows us to examine the roles of both social- and self-image concerns, and to investigate whether these concerns are diminished when participants are provided with responsibility-diffusing excuses. When the responsibility for a broken promise is undeniable, promise keeping is hig…

This study examines the impact of automated workplace control on employee performance and trust. In light of the rise in remote work and increasing use of algorithmic monitoring, we conduct a controlled experiment to investigate how workers' performance responds to control decisions made by an algorithm compared to a human. Moreover, we investigate spillovers on the subsequent trust in employers.…

In a series of experiments, Australian researchers showed how machines can find vulnerabilities in human decision-making and exploit them to influence our behaviour.

IntroductionDrivers supervising Level 2 automation must maintain situation awareness while the system controls steering and speed. Miscalibrated trust can contribute to overreliance and lapses in monitoring, whereas insufficient trust leads to disuse. Prolonged supervision is associated with increased mind-wandering, which can slow reactions to critical events. This study tested whether brief edu…

To make effective decisions, it is important to have a thorough understanding of the causal relationships among actions, environments, and outcomes. This review aims to surface three crucial aspects of decision making through a causal lens: 1) the discovery of causal relationships through causal structure learning, 2) understanding the impacts of these relationships through causal effect learning…