Firm energy accreditation for small modular reactors under El Niño (ENSO) stress in hydro-dominant power systems: evidence and policy lessons from Latin America
Victor Hincapié
IntroductionHydro-dominant power systems in Latin America are recurrently exposed to ENSO-driven hydrological scarcity, creating adequacy risks precisely when firm energy is most valuable.MethodsThis paper proposes a Monte Carlo-based methodology to accredit nuclear firm energy for small modular reactors (SMRs) under climatic stress, using an explicit stress-month definition derived from long-run hydrological energy contributions and technology-specific derating profiles. The framework combines