Does sovereign refinancing pressure create structural mispricing in EM equity options?
AADWIK SINHA
I've been modelling the relationship between government debt auction calendars and implied volatility surfaces in emerging market contexts — specifically whether φ (sovereign refinancing pressure) and λ (liquidity stress) create predictable, calendar-driven dislocations that standard models like Heston and Bates don't capture. The intuition: retail-dominated EM options markets systematically underprice convexity around RBI auction windows because participants aren't pricing the sovereign feedbac
