In volatility targeting annualised rolling volatility is estimated using a lookback window or an exponentially weighted moving average . The recursive EWMA formula for variance is: where , and is the equivalent lookback window length. The non-recursive form, using , the variance is: The target annualized volatility is divided by the current volatility estimate to obtain a position multiplier, which scales position sizes to keep volatility nearer the target. This works due to the autoregressive nature of volatility. My question regards the choice of . Choosing an that is too large means that you may not react to sudden changes in market conditions. Letting be too small means that normal deviations in market condtions can cause you to over/underleverage yourself in the following periods. I’ve encountered a technique called "Volatility Switching" to address this. It involves calculating EWMA volatility with both a short and a long half-life. Described in the article written by man group: https://www.man.com/insights/volatility-is-back-better-to-target-returns-or-target-risk The half-life is the number of periods where the weight of past observations decays to half, defined by: so . Thus, . The short half-life EWMA is used for position sizing only when it diverges significantly from the long half-life EWMA. Mathematically, the chosen volatility is: where if the divergence exceeds a threshold, and otherwise. Once again we encounter the issue of an arbitrary choice of this threshold, a poorly chosen non robust definition of this threshold could cause inappropriate position sizes to be used. To counteract this , I am considering a dynamic approach where varies continuously on based on the degree of divergence between the short and long half-life EWMA values. How can I define a function for that maps the divergence between short and long half-life EWMA volatilities to a value ?

Volatility Targeting: Dynamic Approaches
Ciarán S

