Why Forecasting Fails Decision Makers

Published on April 24, 2026 7:39 PM GMT The forecasting community is failing because it is not focused on how the world actually works. This post has been written in response to the Manifund Essay Prize which asks “How can we leverage forecasting into better decisions?” Who am I to make such an outlandish claims? I worked at HM Treasury as senior policy advisor across multiple policy areas, including international development, relations, and I led the team for HMTs economic and financial respons