IntroductionRapid peri-urban expansion poses significant challenges, including spatial inequality, ecological degradation, and mismatches between land development and public-service provision. Addressing these issues requires integrated planning approaches that balance multiple sustainability dimensions. This study aims to evaluate alternative pathways for constructing a “good urban area” in Nansha District, Guangzhou, by systematically comparing scenarios that prioritize equity, growth, environmental protection, or maintain current trends.MethodsWe developed the Spatial–Participatory–Ecological–Coupled Governance–Smart Equity (SPECS) framework, integrating cellular automata, behavioral relocation rules, ecological constraints, governance allocation, and equity assessment. Data on land use, demographics, economy, zoning, accessibility, and stakeholder inputs were collected from 18 subdistricts. Historical land-use transitions (2005–2010) were used for model training, 2010–2015 for parameter selection, and 2015–2020 for out-of-sample validation. Four 2025–2035 trajectories were simulated: business-as-usual, equity-prioritized, growth-oriented, and environmentally constrained. Model performance was assessed via overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient, while scenario outcomes were compared using composite performance scores, ecological-redline overlap, and equity indices. Robustness was tested through Monte Carlo analysis under parameter variation and policy shocks.ResultsHistorical validation achieved 91.6% overall land-class accuracy and a Kappa coefficient of 0.872. The equity-prioritized trajectory raised procedural equity from 0.53 to 0.71 and distributive equity from 0.49 to 0.65, improved service accessibility, reduced spatial-functional mismatch, and attained the highest composite performance score (0.704). The environmentally constrained trajectory recorded the lowest ecological-redline overlap (3.2%) and strongest ecological retention. Monte Carlo analysis confirmed that both the equity-prioritized and environmentally constrained scenarios maintained robust Pareto membership and rank stability under uncertainty.DiscussionThe equity-prioritized pathway offers the best overall performance by concurrently enhancing social fairness, service accessibility, and land-use efficiency, while the environmentally constrained option excels in ecological protection. These findings demonstrate that scenario-based planning, facilitated by the SPECS framework, provides a transparent and robust decision-support tool for comparing trade-offs among equity, ecological integrity, spatial suitability, and institutional feasibility in rapidly urbanizing peri-urban regions.