This study investigated the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of vegetation coverage (NDVI) in the Kekeya project area and its response to meteorological factors over the past 3 decades. On the basis of Landsat remote sensing data from 1993 to 2023 and meteorological variables including air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed, this research aimed to reveal the spatial–temporal evolution patterns of vegetation and identify the dominant driving mechanisms underlying ecological change in this arid region. From 1993 to 2023, the NDVI showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, with the highest value in 2020 and the lowest in 2001. The Mann–Kendall test revealed an increasing abrupt change in 2013, reflecting the combined effects of climate variability and greening projects. Vegetation cover decreased from north to south, with high NDVI values concentrated in low-elevation zones (1065–1200 m). The proportion of extremely low coverage area declined from 70.28% to 14.33%, whereas the areas with high and very high coverage expanded notably, indicating significant ecological restoration. Between 2001 and 2021, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) showed an overall mild wetting trend with periodic drought fluctuations, while the NDVI continued to increase; however, their weak correlation (r = 0.2313, P > 0.05) suggested that vegetation recovery was driven mainly by anthropogenic activities, particularly ecological engineering and water management. The NDVI was significantly positively correlated with relative humidityand precipitation, whereas temperature exhibited a bidirectional effect and wind speed had a predominantly negative correlation. Residual trend analysis further supported that human-dominated areas occupied the largest proportion of the study area, with strong human dominance concentrated in the central-southern core zone spatially coinciding with the key implementation areas of the Kekeya Greening Project. Greening projects also reduced near-surface wind speeds, enhancing ecosystem stability. Overall, vegetation coverage in the Kekeya project area has significantly improved over the past 3 decades, reflecting the combined impacts of ecological restoration initiatives and climate variability, while human interventions—particularly large-scale greening projects and water management—play a crucial role in promoting ecosystem recovery. These findings provide valuable insights for ecological management, climate adaptation, and sustainable restoration planning in arid and semiarid regions.