Towards the end of the year, here’s one more blog post that’s a bit wonkish, but teaches an important lesson. It’s about statistics, and about one of the many ways in which it can be counterintuitive. Almost all statistics discussed in the everyday press deals with averages, and maybe fluctuations around averages. As we all know, this can already be confusing enough. But here we wish to deal with the opposite problem: instead of wanting to know what will most likely happen, we will be...