QuantPedia

Our study explores a weekly-rebalanced dual-momentum-based Global Tactical Asset Allocation (GTAA) strategy applied to a diversified set of ETFs. The strategy selects assets based on relative momentum and applies an absolute momentum filter to avoid declining investments. Ultimately, a single combined strategy was created by merging two sub-strategies, incorporating both shorter- and longer-term …

For U.S. equities, fixed income, and commodities, reconstructing long-term historical datasets is relatively straightforward, and we have already explored these challenges in several previous studies, including 100 Years of Multi-Asset Trend Following, Extending Historical Daily Bond Data to 100 Years, and Extending Historical Daily Commodities Data to 100 Years. Moreover, the broader methodology…

In the high-stakes arena of prediction markets, a counterintuitive pattern emerges: retail traders who correctly pick winners more than half the time still lose money, while automated traders with coin-flip accuracy pocket nine-figure profits. Using 222 million prediction market tradeswith directly observable terminal payoffs, the paper "Who Profits from Prediction? Execution, Not Information" pr…

Commodity markets are back in investors’ focus. After years in which equities and growth assets dominated portfolios, the recent rise in geopolitical tensions, inflation uncertainty, supply-chain fragmentation, and renewed resource nationalism has reminded allocators that commodities remain a critical macro asset class. That is why a newly released research paper, An Index of Commodity Futures Re…

Hello all, What have we accomplished in the last month? – Expansion of Quantpedia’s API – Introduction of Bookmarks – Quantpedia Awards 2026 Top 10 papers – 12 new Quantpedia Premium strategies – 7 new related research papers – 8 new backtests – and finally, 8 new posts on our Quantpedia blog The post Quantpedia in April 2026 first appeared on QuantPedia .

Seven new strategies have been added. Four new related research paper have been included into existing strategy reviews and four new short free blog posts have been published during last few weeks. Plus, four trading strategies have been backtested in QuantConnect in the previous two weeks. The post Quantpedia Premium Update – May 7th first appeared on QuantPedia .

From the trading desk to the portfolio committee, investors face a familiar question: how should alternative stores of value fit into a diversified portfolio? This research explores that question through a systematic dual-momentum framework comparing Bitcoin and physical gold in a rules-based tactical allocation model. Rather than debating ideology, we focus on practical portfolio construction an…

In an era of increasingly fragmented market microstructure, the emergence of cross-asset connectedness between Crypto and public equity markets presents a critical challenge for modern portfolio construction. This blog post examines the recent working paper by Harin de Silva, "The Attention Factor: The Speculative Risk You May Already Own," which identifies a previously underappreciated transmiss…

Commodity markets are in the spotlight. Two factors currently stand out. Firstly, the geopolitical tensions, as ongoing instability in the Middle East continues to create uncertainty in energy markets, particularly on the supply side. Secondly, less discussed are climate conditions as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate cycle that affects temperature and precipitation p…

The growing dominance of passive investing has fundamentally altered the dynamics of equity markets. A substantial share of trading volume is now driven by index-tracking strategies, which mechanically allocate capital based on index membership rather than company-specific fundamentals. This raises an important question: can predictable flows associated with index rebalancing be systematically ex…

Five new strategies have been added. Three new related research paper have been included into existing strategy reviews and four new short free blog posts have been published during last few weeks. Plus, four trading strategies have been backtested in QuantConnect in the previous two weeks. The post Quantpedia Premium Update – April 27th first appeared on QuantPedia .

One of the advantages of the Quantpedia Pro platform and its Portfolio Analysis toolkit is the ability to analyze not only multi-asset and multi-strategy portfolios but also individual equity curves. Users can upload virtually any return series or analyze assets already present in the database. The same analytical tools used for portfolio construction can therefore also be applied to single asset…

What if a meaningful part of a usual trading strategy’s performance has nothing to do with your signal—but simply when you rebalance? A recent paper written by Carlo Zarattini & Alberto Pagani highlights a largely underestimated risk in systematic investing: rebalance timing luck (RTL). For practitioners running rotation or factor strategies, this is not noise—it’s a structural source of dispersi…

This study examines the profitability of mean-reversion trading strategies applied to binary outcome contracts on Polymarket, the world's largest decentralized prediction market platform. We analyze three distinct contracts representing varying risk profiles: a quasi-risk-free instrument (No to "Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?") and two high-yield speculative contracts (No to "Will China invade…

Many beginners enter the markets with the same silent assumption: if they study hard enough, find the right indicators, or discover the right strategy, they should eventually be able to generate high returns with manageable risk. The market appears full of examples that seem to confirm this belief. Screenshots of triple digit gains are everywhere. Backtests often look smooth. Social media makes i…

Hello all, What have we accomplished in the last month? – Launch of Quantpedia's API – Invitation to Uncorrelated Puerto Rico conference – Quantpedia Awards 2026 reminder – 11 new Quantpedia Premium strategies – 7 new related research papers – 7 new backtests – and finally, 7 new posts on our Quantpedia blog The post Quantpedia in March 2026 first appeared on QuantPedia .

Five new strategies have been added. Three new related research paper have been included into existing strategy reviews and three new short free blog posts have been published during last few weeks. Plus, four trading strategies have been backtested in QuantConnect in the previous two weeks. The post Quantpedia Premium Post – April 7th first appeared on QuantPedia .

The global investment environment is going through a period of meaningful structural change. The dominance of the U.S. dollar is increasingly being questioned, geopolitical tensions are rising, and macroeconomic uncertainty remains elevated. Together, these forces challenge the post-Global Financial Crisis environment in which U.S. equities consistently outperformed most international markets. As…

One year ago, in our article “Can We Finally Use ChatGPT as a Quantitative Analyst?”, we explored the feasibility of leveraging ChatGPT for quantitative analysis. Since then, a lot has changed: newer models are now available (from OpenAI and also other vendors), and the ecosystem around AI-assisted analysis has evolved significantly. Back then, we encountered numerous challenges, ranging from mod…