Rule High Stakes In, Not Out

Rule High Stakes In, Not Out Asymmetries in Significance given Model Uncertainty Scott Alexander argued that we should rule some things (e.g. thinkers) in, not out. Ord et al (2010) explain how, when a model or argument seeks to establish a tiny probability as the best estimate of some high-stakes event (e.g. human extinction), the estimated probability may be “dwarfed by the chance that the argument itself is flawed.” Putting these together yields an important methodological heuristic for...