Exact linear correlations and the cost of Walsh-transform key recovery, with application to SPEEDY

When two S-box layers of a round are separated by no key addition, the round correlation is a signed sum over all compatible intermediate masks, not a product of layer correlations, so the product rule can fail in either direction. Our central finding is that evaluating this intra-round sum exactly changes the assessment of the published linear cryptanalysis of SPEEDY, whose two S-box layers are separated only by ShiftColumns. We first develop the linear cryptanalysis of this setting: an exact one-round algorithm with a decidable exactness condition for the product rule, a dependency-graph decomposition, a covering-number bound strengthening linear-trail weight bounds, and a Walsh-support criterion in which the affine dimension of that support, limited by the endpoint key masks, fixes the key-recovery transform cost. Potentials use the independent-round-key model; complexities are in equivalent encryptions. Applied to SPEEDY, these tools revise published results: a reported five-round mask sequence has exact correlation $2^{-90.0962}$, not $2^{-93.0147}$; the new bound raises the unrestricted five-round weight bound from $53.7714$ to $62.2616$ bits; and the full-round attack on SPEEDY-7-192 reported at time $2^{158.06}$ needs at least $2^{199.97}$ encryptions in the pruning class considered. For SPEEDY-6-192 we give a six-round known-plaintext attack (data $2^{169.84}$, time $2^{170.20}$, memory $2^{156}$) and show that the attack class defined here contains no attack with data and time both at most $2^{128}$, its time being at least $2^{136.302}$. The same exact evaluation also revises a four-round differential-linear correlation.