Non Arbitrageable Inefficency in Betting Market
M.J. Rayburn
On Polymarket, there's a market for GDP growth in 2026. There are six mutually exclusive intervals (It states that a value exactly on the border will go to the higher interval.). The odds for these intervals sum to a number much higher than 100%. At time of writing 153%, and it was 180% earlier today. The obvious thing to do is of course to simply buy the "no" on each interval until the probability sums to 100%. The problem is that the "no" costs close to a full dollar on all of them ... explain