IntroductionCold region agriculture is an important component of the global food security system. In recent years, cold regions have experienced significant warming and increasingly frequent extreme events. However, the propagation characteristics and driving mechanisms of different drought types across agricultural regions in cold regions remain insufficiently understood. Therefore, this study focused on Northeast China, a major grain-producing region located in the high-latitude cold zone.MethodsMeteorological drought (MD), agricultural drought (AD), and groundwater drought (GD) were characterized across different agricultural regions. Drought response time and propagation time were analyzed to quantify the temporal relationships among different drought types. A drought propagation model was constructed to identify propagation thresholds and evaluate the drought resistance capacities of different agricultural regions. Furthermore, an XGBoost model combined with SHAP analysis was used to identify the main factors influencing AD and GD.Results(1) MD was more severe in the western and northern parts of the study area, AD was more severe in the southwestern and southeastern parts, and GD was more severe in the northern, western, and southwestern parts. (2) The propagation times between different drought types were generally longer in winter than during the growing season. (3) The soil water systems in the western, central, and southwestern parts of the study area exhibited relatively high resistance to MD, whereas groundwater systems in parts of the central and eastern regions showed relatively high resistance to AD. (4) Shallow soil temperature was one of the most important factors influencing AD in Northeast China, while the dominant factors influencing GD varied among agricultural regions.DiscussionThese findings improve the understanding of drought propagation processes and regional differences in drought resistance in cold regions under climate change and provide a scientific basis for region-specific drought monitoring and risk prevention.