Campus climate surveys are widely administered in higher education, but their results are rarely integrated into student-success analytics. This study examines negative campus climate as an institutional risk indicator for academic satisfaction, intention to remain, and psychological wellbeing. Open student microdata from the 2016 University of Michigan Campus Climate Survey on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (ICPSR 37096) were analyzed. A negative climate factor was constructed from perceived DEI climate, general climate, fair treatment, and institutional communication and showed satisfactory psychometric properties (KMO = 0.780; α = 0.846; ω = 0.850; AVE = 0.587). Survey-weighted analyses combined inverse probability weighting, five-fold cross-fitted augmented inverse probability weighting, continuous models, cluster analysis, mediation, and spline-based risk curves. High negative climate was associated with reductions of 0.734, 0.752, and 0.656 points on the original five-point scales for academic satisfaction, intention to remain, and wellbeing, respectively; standardized AIPW contrasts were −1.029, −1.017, and −0.951 SD. Each one SD increase in negative climate was associated with decreases of 0.764, 0.725, and 0.661 SD in the respective outcomes. Wellbeing statistically mediated 21.4% of the association with academic satisfaction and 19.3% of the association with intention to remain. Three interpretable climate profiles showed substantial outcome gradients. The predicted probability of very low outcomes reached 25% at climate scores between 1.80 and 2.42 SD above the mean, depending on the outcome. These context-specific findings support campus climate as a potentially useful institutional monitoring signal, while not establishing temporal or causal effects.