Background The incidence of arteriosclerosis is steadily increasing, and arteriosclerosis is closely associated with cardiovascular diseases. The objective of this research was to create and verify a tool for forecasting arteriosclerosis in middle-aged and elderly individuals within the community. Methods A cohort study was conducted in multiple communities, and 4107 participants over 40 years of age were enrolled. The participants were randomly divided into a derivation cohort ( n = 2875) and a