A bstract The nucleation of bubbles in first-order phase transitions is traditionally characterised by the critical bubble: defined as the saddle-point solution of the Euclidean action that separates collapsing from expanding field configurations. While this picture is exact in the noiseless, zero-temperature limit, thermal fluctuations introduces stochasticity which can influence the behaviour of the field configuration. In this work, we develop a purely statistical criterion for identifying th