The Net Effective Radiative Forcing From Ozone‐Depleting Substances and Its Uncertainty

Abstract The direct effective radiative forcing (ERF) of long‐lived ozone‐depleting substances (ODS) is around 15%–20% of the pre‐industrial to present‐day ERF of , but their net ERF, including indirect chemical adjustments, remains poorly constrained. We use an adapted simple climate model, trained on bulk indirect ODS forcing from complex climate models, to quantify uncertainty in net ERF over time and the net ERF across individual ODS. We find that the direct ODS ERF in 2019 of 0.35 (0.31, 0.