Abstract The paper advances a new framework to analyze how policy-driven changes in demand regimes trigger firm-level structural cycles of technological change and organizational reconfiguration, ultimately affecting industrial leadership. With a focus on renewable energy technologies, and Germany as a critical case, we study how the shift from feed-in tariffs to auctions triggered different industrial dynamics and strategic responses among key incumbents—Nordex, Enercon and Siemens-Gamesa. Demand-side industrial policy can have unintended effects, and the degree to which firms’ responses are aligned with changes in demand regimes has implications for their industrial leadership.