Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis

We administer a theory-driven, lab-in-the-field experiment to study the disposition effect among financial professionals. Our novel design identifies, at the individual participant level, key behavioral drivers of the disposition effect: reference-dependent risk attitudes (“tastes”), second-order uncertainty attitudes (including “ambiguity”), and subjective likelihood assessments (“beliefs”). Amo…

This study provides direct evidence of the association between debt–equity conflict and investment efficiency in financially distressed firms. Leveraging a unique institutional setting in Japan, we examine the impact of lender-affiliated directors on the managerial decisions of their borrowers. Although banker-directors do not influence firms at low risks of default, their presence leads to more …

The identification of disaster risk has remained a significant challenge due to the rarity of macroeconomic disasters. We show that the interbank market can help characterize the time variation in disaster risk. We propose a risk-based model in which macroeconomic disasters are likely to coincide with interbank market failure. Using interbank rates and their options, we estimate our model via max…

This article examines how the entry of commercial lenders (CLs) transforms microfinance markets, focusing on borrower outcomes and market-wide spillovers. Using detailed credit registry data, we show that increased competition improves loan terms for both graduating and staying borrowers, generating sustained benefits. Our setting also allows us to document what happens when entry fails and entra…

Equity returns follow a pronounced V-shape pattern around the onset of recessions. They sharply drop into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recover as the recession unfolds. Recessions are typically preceded by a flat yield curve. Probit models relying on the term spread as a predictor therefore time the beginning of recessions well. We show that model-implied …

This article investigates crash risk premiums in individual stocks using skewness swaps. These swaps involve buying a stock’s risk-neutral skewness and receiving the realized skewness as a payoff. The strategy’s returns, which measure the skewness risk premium, are found to be consistently large and positive. This suggests investors are concerned about potential crashes in individual stocks and r…

We investigate how the government, as a customer, affects a supplier’s environmental policies. We find that government contractors have significantly lower levels of toxic pollution. Exploring the mechanisms, we show that government contractors reduce pollution by strengthening internal environmental governance and increasing investments in pollution abatement. Further analysis rules out alternat…

Exploiting changes in countries’ competition laws, we find that competition increases firms’ propensity to use zero leverage (ZL). We test the financial-flexibility, financial-constraint, and quiet-life explanations for this result, concluding that desire for flexibility is the one most likely. The relation between competition and ZL strengthens with cash-flow volatility, which supports the flexi…

In a setting with a tradable value-weighted market index, ambiguity-averse investors do not trade, and the index is not mean–variance efficient. But when a passive fund offers the risk-adjusted market portfolio ( RAMP ), whose weights depend on information precision as well as market values, investors share risk via index investing and effectively hold the same portfolios as in the economy withou…

After medical marijuana legalization (MML) by U.S. states, firms’ cost of equity (COE) decreases, especially for those with more growth opportunities, higher productivity, or a more skilled workforce. This policy change also reduces firm risk and leads to an increase in labor supply through increased labor force participation, employment, hours worked, and net migration. Further, home prices rise…

This study examines how changes in political leadership and rising U.S. polarization flow through societal culture to corporate culture. Using quasi-experimental methods, we find that executives adjust culture messaging in earnings calls on extensive and intensive margins across varying political contexts. These changes follow two pathways: under political alignment, executives emphasize their fi…

Practical real-world activities consume energy and emit thermal infrared radiation (TIR). Leveraging this physical fact, we develop a direct, real-time measure of firms’ operating activity using satellite data. Tracking 28,236 factories of Chinese listed firms, we find TIR declines significantly following operational shocks and strongly forecasts subsequent sales growth, costs, investment, employ…

This article shows that when a compensation peer firm experiences a significant failure in its say-on-pay (SOP) voting, the focal firm’s stock price is adversely affected, resulting in reduced CEO pay in the subsequent period. This pay-reduction effect is amplified when the board is more powerful, when proxy advisors express concerns about CEO pay, and when the compensation consultant lacks quali…

This article documents adverse selection in Ginnie Mae issuers’ early buyout decisions. Conditional on default, we find a 1 percentage point increase in interest rate spread increases the probability of an early buyout by 7–9 percentage points. Issuers buy out higher interest rate spread loans because they generate greater economic gains when they reperform. We illustrate how issuers acquire priv…

We are the first to study the interplay between corporate diversification and debt maturity, both theoretically and empirically. Our models predict that diversification mitigates the debt-overhang problem, making long-term debt more attractive in the presence of rollover costs. Using data on 30,135 firms from 1978 to 2022, we find that multi-division firms have debt maturities at least 1 year lon…

We show that banks use industry knowledge acquired through corporate lending in mortgage lending, a phenomenon we refer to as the “industry expertise channel.” Specifically, banks that specialize in particular industries expand their mortgage lending activity in regions where those industries are concentrated. The impact of industry expertise increases with information asymmetry and borrower risk…

This article studies how ESG and conventional mutual funds trade stocks during the COVID-19 crash. Both fund types trade individual stocks similarly: Net purchases of ESG stocks are less sensitive than other stocks to fund flows pre-crash, but sensitivities increase for all stocks during the crash. In contrast, ESG funds’ aggregate net purchases are less sensitive than those of conventional funds…

This article shows that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) “sample” their indexes, systematically underweighting or omitting illiquid index stocks. As a result, arbitrage activity between the ETF and its index has heterogeneous effects on underlying asset markets. Using an instrumental variables approach, we find that the trading activity of ETFs reduces liquidity and price efficiency and increases vol…

We develop a continuous-time model examining agency conflicts among controlling shareholders (managers), minority shareholders, and creditors in corporate investment decisions. The manager’s private benefits encourage overinvestment, while their equity stake and debt overhang lead to underinvestment. We show these offsetting incentive effects can achieve optimal investment timing under certain co…

We model the time-varying probability of consumption disasters with international risk interactions and estimate the model using national accounts data of 42 countries back to 1833. The estimated world and country-specific disaster probabilities accord well with historical macroeconomic disasters. A match of the equity premium requires a relative risk aversion coefficient of approximately 5, whic…