When I was a kid I imagined a probability distribution, where the expected time until something happens, equals the time you have already been waiting and it hasn't happened. I came up with this waiting for trains. This is the opposite of the longer you have been waiting, the less time remaining until it comes. The general idea is that something that hasn't happened will continue to not happen. And the longer it hasn't happened, the less likely it will ever happen. And no matter what your analys