Higher warming predictions for 2026 and 2027

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink Back in December I provided some initial projections of where both 2026 and 2027 global mean surface temperatures might end up. A lot has happened since then. We’ve gotten the first three months of data in for 2026 1 (and have a good sense of where April 2026 will end up in reanalysis data – see our Climate Dashboard for daily updates). More importantly, models are converging on a doozy of an El Niño event developing in the latter part of 2026, with the l