Technical AI Safety Research Plausibly Increases P(doom) Absent Vastly More Advocacy
Contrarian^2 = I 🔸
Published on April 30, 2026 7:39 AM GMT TL;DR: Safety research without regulation is optional. Cautious labs adopt it and slow down, while reckless labs don't and accelerate. The median lead lab is more reckless in the scenario with strong technical AI safety research and weak governance than in any other scenario. This post seems longer than it is. If the 4 premises below seem plausible to you, you can read just the short scenarios and get the gist This post rests on the following premises: Pre