A (Slightly) Mechanistic Theory for Exponentially Increasing AI Time Horizons?

Published on May 25, 2026 1:52 AM GMT AI ‘time horizons’ are mostly not about time (I think it’s mostly ‘data’, but you’ll see where I’m unsure). One chart from 2025 has become perhaps the most (in)famous in modern AI commentary. For those in the know, ‘ the METR graph ’ [1] is unusually compelling because it achieves what so few measures of AI progress have achieved: a somewhat meaningful Y axis (‘time horizon’ [2] ) as well as a somewhat predictable trend over time! (This is remarkably rare !)