Probabilistic population forecasts for small regions (by Julius Goes)

Background: Age-specific population forecasts for small areas or subnational regions are a valuable tool for local governments. However, typical population projection methods based on the cohort-component approach are difficult to apply on a smaller subnational scale. Objective: We introduce Bayesian methods suitable for obtaining reliable age-specific population forecasts for small regions using the cohort-component method. Methods: Our approach improves fertility forecasting by extending the L