On Optimism About New Military Technologies
Lin, Herbert S.
dc.title: On Optimism About New Military Technologies
dc.description.abstract: This article identifies psychological, cultural, and organizational factors that drive optimism about emerging military technologies. Psychological influences include bounded rationality, cognitive biases (like the planning fallacy and confirmation bias), and motivated reasoning. Culturally, the US military’s “can-do” ethos and historical narratives about technology’s role in victory reinforce belief in technological