Published on June 19, 2026 4:17 PM GMT Here’s Holden Karnofsky : I tend to think it’s worse than 51/49. I tend to think we’re always going to be prone to overestimate how robustly good our actions are. And the more we learn about all the galaxy-brained considerations that one should have had in one’s head, the more it’s going to be like 50+ε%. I think AI safety is a great cause to work in. I’m excited to work in it. I think it’s high impact. I am doing my best to do things that I will be proud t

A brief list of ways AI safety efforts could be net negative
Elias Schmied
