The Taxi Cab Problem: Why 80% Reliable Witnesses Are Usually Wrong

In This Article The Question The Intuition Trap: The Base Rate Fallacy The Mathematical Proof Python Simulation: 1,000,000 Trials Litigation Application: When Juries Get the Math Wrong The Question A cab was involved in a hit-and-run accident at night. Two cab companies operate in the city: the Green company and the Blue company. You are given the following facts: 85% of the cabs in the city are Green, and 15% are Blue. A witness identified the hit-and-run cab as Blue. The court tested the witne