Abstract The rapid expansion of solar photovoltaic (SPV) systems poses critical challenges to material supply security and waste management. Addressing these challenges require integrating circular economy strategies. This study develops a dynamic and probabilistic material flow analysis (MFA) to quantify the lifecycle material flows of crystalline silicon (c-Si) modules from 1998 to 2050, with waste projections extended to 2099. Three circular economy scenarios are evaluated, integrating the Eu