Regime-based drought dynamics: a data-driven differential equation framework for state transitions, weak seasonality, and irregular variability

Abstract This study provides a comprehensive assessment of drought dynamics based on 576 monthly observations from multiple stations in the Wadi Isser basin. Descriptive analyses revealed that near-normal conditions dominate the climatic profile, averaging 18–21 stations per month, although sporadic episodes of severe drought and intense wetness highlight the system’s vulnerability to extreme anomalies. Cluster analysis identified three distinct drought regimes: (1) a stable, near-normal state w