Spatial Dynamics of Climate-Driven Suitability for Africa’s Rainfed Staple Crops

Africa’s rainfed agricultural systems are highly exposed to climate change, making shifts in temperature and rainfall a major concern for staple-food crop production. Using a MaxENT ecological niche modelling approach with crop occurrence, elevation, soil and climatic predictors, this study assessed current and future suitability for rainfed maize, millet and sorghum under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The projections show a notable expansion of 11.1–22.0% in areas suitable for maize cultivation, and a d