Land Use Simulation and Identification of Core Carbon Sink Areas in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

In the context of global climate change, the “dual carbon” goals, and land space planning, this study integrates the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model, and a soil respiration model (Heterotrophic Respiration, Rh) to simulate land use change and estimate Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) from 2002 to 2023. It projects the carbon sink pattern for 2030 using Hot Spot Analysis. The results show the following: (1) From 2020 to 2030, lan