Integrating host competence and vector distribution to predict current and latent hotspots of West Nile virus hazard

Abstract West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic pathogen with expanding distribution and recurrent outbreaks in Europe and the Americas. WNV transmission depends on interactions between competent avian hosts and mosquito vectors, but empirical data on host competence remain narrow, limiting large-scale assessments of viral hazard. Here, we compile viremia data from experimental infections of birds and develop a trait-based, phylogenetically informed model to predict global avian host