Evolutionary simulations of institutional dynamics in global climate governance

Global climate governance is shaped by NDCs and LT-LEDS that embed benchmarking norms, yet implications for polycentric diversity remain unclear. This study integrates polycentric governance, governmentality, path dependence, and structural reproduction to examine how discursively coded strategies, motives, and incentives relate to institutional responses across 73 countries. A two-stage design combines text-as-data indicators with a repeated evolutionary simulation and system-GMM regression. Un