Emulating Natural Climate Variability With InVERT (Internal Variability Emulator for Regional Temperature)

Abstract Climate change impacts include contributions from both anthropogenic forcing and internal (natural) climate variability. Large ensembles of Earth System Model (ESM) simulations have been used to quantify the influence of natural variability in climate change impact projections. However, such ensembles have high computational costs. Future climate scenarios can be simulated at much lower cost using statistical climate emulators that mimic the output of more complex ESMs. Most climate emu