Projected changes in sub-daily extreme precipitation: comparing temperature-scaling approaches and convection-permitting models across an Alpine gradient

• Optimal scaling 5.5–8.4% K −1 varies with event duration and return period. • High-elevation basins show strong CPM–scaling agreement; lowlands weak links. • Seasonal shifts degrade scaling reliability, especially for longer-duration storms. • Event-based temperature outperforms mean annual temperature in T-P scaling. Quantifying future changes in sub-daily extreme precipitation in mountainous basins is essential for adapting to increasingly intense flash floods and debris flows. Often, extrem