Assessment and prediction of dust emissions, deposition and radiation forcing in Central Asia

Abstract. Dust aerosols significantly influence climate by modulating radiative balance and cloud processes. This study integrates MERRA-2 reanalysis data and the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of dust emissions, deposition, and associated radiative effects in Central Asia from 1980 to 2100. Four SSP scenarios project that dust emissions in Central Asia exhibit a high-emission, high-deposition pattern with primary sources exceeding 15 µg m−2 s−1. The deposition