Provincial allocation of carbon emission quotas for China’s 2030 carbon peak target

Developing a fair and effective carbon emissions quotas (CEQ) allocation plan is crucial for China. This study uses the constructed threshold-STIRPAT extended model to predict the carbon peak in China's 30 provinces. Secondly, the entropy-TOPSIS method is used to calculate the initial allocation of CEQ based on the principle of fairness and is assessed through the carbon Gini coefficient. Thirdly, the optimal allocation of CEQ is calculated based on efficiency principle using the ZSG-DEA model.