Assessing the environmental impact of post-revolution reforms in Tunisia: a synthetic control approach

Understanding how major institutional and economic reforms influence environmental outcomes is essential for countries undergoing political transitions. This study examines how Tunisia’s CO₂ emissions trajectory evolved during the post-revolution institutional transition relative to a synthetic counterfactual constructed using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). Rather than identifying the causal effectiveness of specific reforms, the analysis assesses whether Tunisia’s emissions trajectory dive