Water resources projection using CMIP6 global climate models and water balance uncertainty

Reliable assessment of water balance (WB) under climate change requires an explicit treatment of uncertainty, particularly for precipitation (Pr). This study evaluated near‑future hydro‑climatic projections (2024–2054) for Lashkenar Village, northern Iran, using CMIP6 models under the SSP2‑4.5 scenario. A structured framework was applied, combining lead–lag correction, bias correction, statistical downscaling, and multi‑model ensembling. Among the tested approaches, Support Vector Regression (SV