Behind the curve: econometric estimation and sectoral decomposition of the Japanese Beveridge curve’s evolution around the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract This paper examines the Japanese Beveridge curve in order to identify a possible structural break prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and uncover its potential causes. We utilize two levels of analysis. First, the relationship for the period January 2000–June 2024 is estimated by means of a vector error correction model, through which we detect a structural break at the end of 2019. Second, we use disaggregated vacancy and unemployment data to analyze the Beveridge curves for subgroups at th